Dr Fabian Zuleeg, Chief Executive and Chief Economist, European Policy Centre, Brussels.
The talk by Fabian Zuleeg from the European Policy Centre centred around three questions that Scotland would look to answer as we adapt to a post-COIVD world: What kind of crisis are we facing? What type of responses to the crisis are available? And what does this mean for the future? 
In relation to economic impact, this is a structural crisis and cannot be seen just as a temporary downturn. That is, it will have a lasting impact and it will change society - and how policy and economic change interacts with this structural change will become more apparent. However, we are only starting to get to grips with understanding this. This is just the beginning and we don’t know what shape this is going to take. 
Currently, we have a significant amount of excess capacity and there will not be the demand to sustain the same level of economic activity as 2019. For example, tourism is not predicted to return to the same levels any time soon, although this is not just a Scottish issue, but a wider distribution effect across all countries. 
Some places will be more resilient, whereas others will be vulnerable – and this is playing out at a global level. Extremely worrying is what happens in the longer term development in Africa and South America, creating a challenging global environment. The world has lost the USA as the economic stalwart, and with a growing threat between US and China, we don’t know how this will play out.  More countries around the world are adopting the, “my country first” approach – yet it is harder to deal with the impact of the crisis at only a national level; it can only be resolved through global collaboration. 
The EU has been an exception to an extent, as cross border cooperation continued to happen – but as part of the European Union, it is expected for countries to work together. 
The crisis is also creating ‘big government’ with growing reliance on state aid being back with a vengeance and cannot be just a temporary feature. 
We are returning to a world where government will be deeply involved in economic development, with state aid to the private sector increasing. For example, Germany is spending 50 percent of state aid in the EU and this impacts on the notion of a level playing field. 
So, when Governments are becoming equity holders - what is the long-term trajectory? 
Governments have been there to prevent the collapse of employment, such as the furlough schemes, and to prevent companies’ collapse. However, these are not long-term policies but instead exist to help bridge over a period of uncertainty. But what happens when you reach the end of that period, and the world as we know it has already changed?
If demand doesn’t recover, if companies are not viable - can we really imagine a situation where the government will let the companies go bankrupt?
There will be new challenges in democracies, as economic crises will always have a political impact. However, the populists aren’t gaining very much at the moment – we are seeing that they are losing from this situation which is dependent on science and expertise. 
However, populism will come back as the populist will offer easy solutions such as pushing to open up quicker - and overcoming political challenges with rhetoric.  
So, what does the new normal look like? For example, are we going to travel significantly less? There is a rise in walking and cycling - but this creates a threat to public transport; with people not feeling comfortable using it. Also, societal change – there will be a challenge on how economic activity will function.
For universities, what will become of international students?  Will we return to the numbers, or will we have to transform online teaching? For policy making, there will be far more focus on risk and uncertainty – and being able to react fast and at a scale for solving different problems? 
Do the current frameworks give us security - or the background we require? 
On the European response, at the EU level, they have struggled to react as quickly as they should have at the beginning of the crisis. But when they look at the Euro crisis, it took one and a half years until the EU had a response. This time we are talking about responses required in months – so when it comes to an economic perspective, the EU reacted quicker than the previous crisis. This could come in good standing for the future. 
They (the EU) came to a compromise – this was remarkable, unthinkable, unknown. For example, borrowing money for the first time to spend across the weaker States. 
There will be discussions on other consequences of this crisis - strategic economy, technology sovereignty - what activities will have to take place in Europe? There will be a rethinking on health - the EU didn’t have influence in the health sector - we will see a joint shift to do things together in different areas. 
What does this all mean?
At Europe level, more cooperation, more solidarity - more working together – but is this enough? It is the first step, but the EU is in the same boat as everyone else, this is the start of the process, we all have to refocus on this crisis; 
A transition of a life-time - a technology transition and sustainability transition; 
It is an opportunity to change things permanently - what we can do with the methods that have been there, but not been taken up in the past;
What will be permanent, and what will change over time?
The takeaway from the first panellist was a warning that, if you are left behind in this, you will lose out – in the global environment, the winner takes all, is stronger than ever. 
Charles Abbott and Matt Broadbent, Senior EU Policy & Funding Executives with Scotland Europa
The second talk was about the membership-based organisation Scotland Europa. It represents Scotland’s interests across the EU, by bringing together universities, third sector and the economic development community. It also contains the office of Scottish Enterprise in Brussels, who work closely with development agencies such as Highland and Islands Enterprise and other economic actors. It represents Scottish interests, alongside Scottish Government colleagues. 
The focus again was on operating in uncertainty, whilst representing Scotland’s economic development interests - emerging trends, cross border collaborations, high level policy debates, managing the Brexit transitions.
Scotland is in position where it is in the process of leaving the EU - into an unknown framework, operating in an ever-shifting environment. Scotland Europa is working closely with counterparts in Europe and Scotland, so that there is input into policy relating to the transformations. Emphasis is on how our domestic agencies are working together - and communication with other agencies in Europe.
Some example of projects and collaborations: 
⁃       EURADA 
⁃       VANGUARD INITATIVE 
⁃       ACR+
⁃       NECSTouR
⁃       EUA 
⁃       Ocean Energy Europe
⁃       ERRIN

Items